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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical season!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still