A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
